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A Hung Parliament

by Laurence Rowe published May 09, 2010 01:34 AM

Coalition horse trading seems rather novel for Britain. What might we see? A full Tory-Lib Dem coalition seems unlikely - it would surely mean electoral suicide for the Lib Dems for little in return.

A minority Tory administration with Liberal acquiescence remains a possibility, but only a Labour-Lib Dem coalition could bring about electoral reform. That would require support from at least Plaid Cymru (Labour coalition partners in Wales), the SDLP and Sylvia Hermon (the Labour-leaning ex-Ulster Unionist who left her party after it allied with the Tories) from Northern Ireland, and Caroline Lucas the new Green Party MP.

That would make 323, a bare majority of 2 after excluding the Speaker and the 5 Sein Fein MPs (who do not take up their seats.) Will we have a government by Monday? Would anyone outside the bond markets care?